GALLOPERS PUNTING ARTICLES
The Single Most Important Factor For The Serious Punter
In the words of one of the all time great music lyricists Bob Zimmerman (you may know him as Dylan), the times they are a changing in the world for punting on thoroughbred racing in Australia. No longer do we have class racing, we have ratings based performance handicapping. No longer do we see champion horses like Kingston Town, Lonhro or Sunline stringing together long sequences of successive victories to delight the crowds. The breeding stock is far too tainted and even a bunch from within which a champion can now be bread.
With bloodlines so even, ability so evenly spread, so has the difficulty for the punter increased when assessing form for any particular race. In most races these days there is no standout, not like there was 10-15 years ago, so how does the punter find his edge? Where does the punter look to eliminate those horses in the race that cannot possibly win.
One single word will give this edge to the punter, no, one single number. A number that will strike fear and frustration into the minds and hearts of any jockey or trainer. This particular number will force a trainer to scratch a horse from a race, a jockey to reassess his entire race strategy, and yet some punters completely ignore this numerical catastrophe.
This word, this number is of course is the barrier in which the horse has drawn. Now punters can argue as long and loud as they like as to the merits of this statement, nevertheless we will state this as plainly and bluntly as possible.
Barriers are the single most important factor for punters to consider when assessing form.
May we repeat yet again the famous saying by Keith Noud, Brisbane race caller of the 60s & 70s:-
"There is only one decent barrier, and they progressively get worse."
Keith, rest his soul, was inevitably referring to barrier number 1, and never a truer word has been spoken. It doesn't matter whether the horse is racing at Doomben, Eagle Farm, Randwick, Flemington, Ascot or Timbuc bloody too, a good barrier will win the race for a horse, and bad barrier will lose the race for it.
There are plenty of great web sites on the net that provide punters with barrier statistics. Racenet is a terrific site and provides this information free. So please, be my guest, check out Racenet stats on barriers. It will show on almost every track in Australia, the most winners come from barrier 1. The second most number of winners generally comes from barrier 2. The only differing occasion is in some distance races at some tracks. So please do your homework, have a look at Racenet stats for yourself and you will se we are bleating the truth here.
So, why are barriers that critical to a horses winning chances? Come on, please don't fake naivety here. Surely it stands to reason if a horse draws barrier 1, given a reasonable jockey, then he will obtain the perfect run in the race just off the speed. Then, given any reasonable luck in the straight, he will be given every opportunity to win the race, and if good enough, he more than likely will win the race.
The best horse in the race does not always win the race. The horse with the best run in the race will usually win the race. This statement is priceless, please write it down.
The horse with the best run in the race will usually win the race.
And how does the horse obtain the best run, by drawing a good barrier, and having a good jockey to take advantage of the barrier.
Let's look at the scenarios for horses dawn wide, let's say a double figure barrier. There are really only three options for a jockey drawn out wide.
1. Hook the horse to the rear of the field from the jump and ride for luck. The jockey will then have to make crucial decisions in the run, whether to stick to the inside and hope for a miracle run, or head out wide and go around the field. Generally these horses are the one seen flying home in the final 100m, looking like good things beaten.
2. Allow the horse to jump out with the field and be trapped wide throughout. Well, every punter knows where these horses trapped 3, 4 or 5 wide finish up. Yes, closer to last than first. Remember that sinking feeling you got last time you watched your horse trapped 3 wide the entire trip? Yes, you tore your ticket up before the field had gone 400m didn't you.
3. Charge the horse out of the barriers, ride him for speed to get past the rest of the field and onto the fence. And unless the horse is Manikato, all punters know where these horses finish. They capitulate in the straight because they have used up to much gas far too early to finish back with the cap catchers.
The jockey has no other alternatives other than the three above mentioned, unless some form of miraculous luck is bestowed upon him. And this miracle f loaves & fishes proportions rarely if ever occurs when its your money on the horses nose. In all three of the above scenarios, the horse will end up finishing out of a place unless the horse has well above average ability.
So, why do rank and file punters ignore these facts? Why do punters continue to back horses from wide barriers? Is it the odds? Is it the simple fact they just want to prove smart asses like us wrong? Seriously, we don't care one iota if you back a horse from a double figure barrier, all we ask is that you back it with us and give your money to us rather than the bookie driving the Mercedes.
If you are a serious punter, you record every bet. Then try this exercise over the next month. Next to every bet, mark down the barrier from where the horse started. At the end of the month, check the winners & losers, and the barrier from where they started. The result will astound you, no matter what track, no matter what track conditions.
Our religious rule, is we never, ever back a horse from a barrier wider than 7. In fact, from some starting points, diabolical starting points like the Rosehill 1200m, or the Canterbury 1550m, we don't back horses from outside barrier 4. Can anyone explain to me why the richest race in NSW, the richest 2yo race in the world, starts from a barrier point that has a 250m run to a hair pin bend? Check out the barrier stats for the Rosehill 1100m & 1200m starts. They alone will astound you.
Why did Hot Danish win the Doomben 10,000 in 2010? Because she drew a great barrier. Why did Whobegotyou only run second to Hot Danish? Because he drew barrier 19. That was the difference between Hot Danish winning, and Whobegotyou winning. Reverse the barriers, reverse the result. Just it would have happened when Juene drew barrier 1 in the Melbourne Cup of 1994 and won, while poor old Paris Lane drew 24, sat 4 wide the entire trip and ran a mighty second.
It doesn't matter what race, what track, barriers have the most influence on the out come of most races run in Australia. Check out the scratchings in any race on any given day. Trainers won't run their horses from wide barriers because they know they have no hope of winning. So they scratch the horse.
With the evenness of the stock in this day and age, then punters need an edge. That edge is to only back horses from good barrier draws.
Don't take a tip from us, take a tip from the trainers, take a tip from the jockeys who wince when they see a double figure barrier next to their name.
Simply save yourself some money, don't back horses from wide barriers. This rule is a basic step toward to successful & profitable punting.
Good luck and profitable punting to all . . . . .
