GALLOPERS PUNTING ARTICLES

Ratings Based Races:
The Scourge Of the Modern Day Punter

Gallopers had plenty of success through the 90s and early 2000s by finding young horses who we thought were good enough to go through the grades and simply following them. We would select a maiden galloper, or one who had just won a maiden, then back them every start as they progressed from their Class 1, to Class 2 and right through until they hit the open company. This proved a most profitable avenue of punting until a couple of years ago when the method completely dried up. Alas, it took a few months of analysing results to work out what had happened and why, then put in place measures to plug the flow of outward cash.

In this article, we will run through exactly what transpired, and how we plugged the leaks.

Let's start with maiden races, where most, if not all horses begin their racing career. In Victoria, SA, WA & Tassie all maiden races are set weight or WFA events. In NSW & Qld, about 40% of maidens are set weights or WFA events. This is where the problem starts. Horses are weighted basically at the same weights, with allowances for fillies and mares in these set weights maidens. Should a horse be fortunate enough to win their maiden, then they must now in all states with the exception of Queensland, go into a Ratings Based race that has been given a numbered ranking or benchmark. In Queensland, the only difference is the next step is a Class race, however, the handicaps in these class races in Qld are based on the horses ratings, as they are in every state in Australia.  What happens to these last start maiden winners is they are weighted up to their most recent win and generally end up with either top weight or very close to top weight in the race straight after their maiden win. Think about it, a horse comes out of a level or set weights race, then has to carry almost top weight in handicap, sometimes 4kg or even more over the limit weight. So not only do they jump significantly in weight in real terms, they meet horses who have won more races than they have, sometimes 2, or 3, sometimes even 5 or 6 race wins who are carrying less weight. These last start set weights maiden winners, are now appallingly off in a ratings based event, racing against more experienced & more seasoned horses but carrying more weight. Most punters are aware, that the majority of horses never win a maiden. And then, at least 50% who do, never win another race. Ratings based handicaps ensure this statistic will not change in the short term.

The new ratings based handicapping system make it almost impossible for last start set weights maiden winners, to win at their next start in a ratings based event. In fact, the majority rarely even run a place the start after their maiden win. After scrolling through months of statistics, this fact became blatantly obvious. We immediately stopped betting in ratings based races, rated below RB70 because this is where find most last start maiden winners, and amazingly we plugged 50% of our previous 3 months losses almost overnight.

We also stopped backing horses who had won at their only race start, no matter how impressive they may have appeared. However, what we did find, is that horses that won a maiden in their first one or two runs, then placed at their subsequent run, were quite serious betting propositions at their next run. If a horse jumped from a set weights maiden win, to run a close second or third at their next run carrying close to top weight, then they had proved they had above average ability and could be followed. This was because it was so difficult to compete with these older, better performed horses at the handicap weights allotted in these RB events. A horse who could match it with the older more seasoned horses straight out of maiden class, was a horse with promise.

The next significant issue that needs to be addressed regarding ratings base races is where horses rise or fall in class. Similarly to last start maiden winners, horses rising a certain number of RB points in class find it very difficult to win. In the past, we had found an impressive last start Class 2 winner, could comfortably jump to a Class 4 or 5 and still win. However, this is rarely the case in RB events. In fact, our rule of thumb these days is not to back any horse rising in RB class. We now seek out those horses falling in RB class as the only betting propositions. This is because as you rise higher in RB class, you are meeting even stronger horses than in the lower events, who have more than likely been competing against even higher rated horses at their most recent runs, now coming back in grade.

When racing in the old Class events, most horses found their mark, whether it be Class 1, or Class 2, some horses were never ever going to break through from that grade. RB races now makes it possible for a horse who gets to his mark, then miss a place at several runs,  to come back in RB class and become competitive again. In the past, a Class 3 horse could never come back to a Class 2, even if it had not placed in 10 or even 20 starts in Class events. These horses coming back in class have sometimes won 5, 6 or even 10 races and are far more experienced for a young up and comer who has had only a handful of starts with a single maiden victory to their name.

Quite often these days we see a horse jump 1o RB points in class. Quite seriously, most of these horses have no earthly chance of winning that race, it is far too great an increase in grade to win. Alternatively, a horse falling 10 RB points in class, should always be seriously considered as a winning chance.

Now, before you readers go off half cocked and quote a horse or two who has indeed won a maiden and then gone on to win an RB event, please look at the big picture. How many do it? How many jump 10RB points in class and win? Do your sums, work out the statistics, you will find the majority do not achieve this, and that by backing them all you will only end up broke.

So let's work on a few rules to set us up on the right side of the percentages:-

* Don't back last start maiden winners in RB or BM races
* Don't back horses rising in class in RB ratings, especially those rising 6 or more RB points in class
* Look for horses falling in RB class from their last run
* Look for horses with a handful of starts that won  maiden early, then placed at their next run or their most recent run in an RB event
* Look for horses coming back from a Saturday city class placing in open company, back to an RB event at the provincials or in the country

If we stick to these rules, then we can beat the Ratings Based handicapping system. If you back last start maiden winners or horses rising 8 or 10 RB points in class, then you will lose your money quickly.

Now, for the disbelievers, for those who think we don't know what we are typing here, then do a simple test. For the next month, write down all the last start maiden winners jumping into an RB event. Record how each and every one faired, record the number of starters, the number of winners and the winners price. Then work out if backing every one was profitable. We assure you the loss will astound you.

Punters have to adapt to change. If we don't move with the times, becoming an old time waltzer is pleasurable compared to the amount of money that we could reasonably lose. In a few years, there will be another major change to handicapping by administrators  who want to be seen to be doing something for owners & trainers. Punters will again be the sufferers initially until we work out the nuances of this new system. Just as we did when ratings based handicapping was thrust upon us a few years ago.

Punters can beat the ratings based handicapping system. Stick to the above mentioned rules, and you will be half way to overcoming one of the major hurdles confronting punters in 2010.

Good luck and profitable punting to all . . . . .