GALLOPERS PUNTING ARTICLES
Rain Affected Tracks-A Punters Greatest Nightmare
Most serious punters take a holiday during the winter months, or at least the very , reduce their punting exploits. The main reason for this is continual wet racing surfaces which make it difficult for punters to chronically predict the results of horse races.
As we reach the heart of winter's coldest extremities, punters are faced with a plethora of rain affected tracks due to precipitation, heavy dews and the simple fact that turf racing surfaces cannot dry out quickly due to the cooler air temperatures. Punters must become smarter in their approach to betting during the winter months.
Gallopers simple rule of thumb is not to bet on tracks rated worse than a dead (5). This will not only reduce the number of bets punters will have during the winter months, it will avert the punter from watching massive form reversals that cause their hard earned cash to slip into a muddy mire of hoof marks.
So why do we adopt such a rule? Simple, to avoid form reversals which inevitably saves us plenty of money.
Why are there so many form reversals on rain affected tracks? And why can some horses handle wet tracks, and other horses cannot? And finally why do some horses handle rain affected tracks at some venues, but do not handle rain affected tracks at other venues?
Form reversals on rain affected tracks occur for several reasons. The obvious one is horses coming off good form on dry tracks going onto a rain affected track, and vice versa. Some horses that perform at their peak on dry racing surfaces simply cannot handle wet tracks therefore perform below expectation.
The horses that handle rain affected racing surfaces usually have similar breeding, as some breeds get through the going, others certainly don't. So punters who insist on betting on wet tracks should keep a list of noted wet track sires and stick to them.
Another reason that some horses handle wet tracks better than others is their build. Smaller horses, with solid stockier builds generally handle wet tracks far better than tall, lanky, long legged equines. This is because they take smaller strides, their body weight is closer to the ground to assist them to become more balanced as they gallop through the heavy track. The taller, longer legged animals take longer strides therefore can more easily become unbalanced and flounder in the heavy going.
There is another major reason for form reversals on rain affected racing surfaces. This has to do with the actual base on which the race course is laid. Almost every grass course in Australia would have been laid on a different base, whether it be sand or soil. Soil types vary not only from state to state, but from region to region even area to area. The base determines how quickly or slowly a racing surface absorbs the water or moisture laying on top, therefore determining how quickly or slowly the course will dry out. A heavy racing surface at Ballarat in Victoria, will be completely different to a heavy racing surface at Canterbury in Sydney and therefore a horse that handles the heavy going at Canterbury, may not necessarily handle the heavy surface at Ballarat.
There will of course be some horses who are simply swimmers and can handle any form of wet tracks. Punters need to book mark these horses, so if they must have a bet on rain affected tracks, then these are the ones the punter wants to be on.
The other problem in punters betting during the winter months is there is clearly a lesser quality of horse racing throughout the country, with of course the exception of the Brisbane winter carnival days. The lesser quality horses not only don't perform as well as the Spring quality horses, they also perform less consistently, making even more difficult for punters to predict results.
Always remember, horses are creatures of habit, and will generally perform in a similar manner given similar circumstances. So horses who handle a heavy track at Cranbourne one day, will generally handle a heavy track at Cranbourne the next day. And if a horse fails dismally on a heavy track at Gosford, then it is reasonable to assume unless there were mitigating circumstances surrounding the original failure, they won't handle a heavy track at Gosford on another day.
If punters insist on betting on rain affected tracks, follow a few simple rules. Keep a list of noted wet track sires, and only back horses in those breeds. Also keep a list of sires noted for not throwing horses that can handle wet tracks, eg Octagonal, and avoid backing those breeds on wet tracks. Keep a list of individual horses who only perform at their best on rain affected tracks, and also keep a list of individual tracks specialists when racing on heavy to slow racing surfaces. Inspect horses pre race to visually determine the horses size, and keep bets only to those with a suitable build to get through the ground.
Again we repeat, our simple rule of thumb is not to bet on tracks rated worse than a dead(5). Plus, we never back horses that won on a rain affected track at their last start, but find themselves on a dry track today. These two simple rules will reduce the number of bets the punter has, which inevitably will save them plenty of money.
Good luck & profitable punting to all . . . . .
