Wednesday 5 November 2008

Spring 2008 - The Year Of The Long Shots

No matter what happens on Oaks day tomorrow at Flemington, or the final day of the 2008 spring carnival on Saturday, this year will have to be remembered as the year punters were sent packing without even the shirt on their backs. The win of Viewed yesterday in the Melbourne Cup at odds of over $40 on all Australian totes, has capped off a spring carnival that will have most punters shaking their heads as to how they are supposed to find these winners. It has been a spring for despised outsiders, winning almost every Group 1 race on offer, with the exception of the Caulfield Guineas some 3 weeks ago.

Let's have a look at the winners of the major races thus far:-

Caulfield Cup - All The Good  $41 SP

W S Cox Plate - Maldivian  $12 SP

VRC Derby - Rebel Raider  $101 SP

Melbourne Cup - Viewed  $41 SP

Now, I suppose Maldivian was not what you would call a monstrous outsider winning the Cox Plate. Nevertheless, he was not in the first 5 favourites on the day and started $12 in a field of 12, after a dismal performance in the Caulfield Cup the week prior. What he did Cox Plate day was a form reversal of decent proportions, it must be said.

All The Good was a last start winner at Newmarket by over 3 lengths, so maybe he simply got under Australian punters guard. However Rebel Raider ran a meek 3rd in the Geelong Classic, a race rarely proving a strong form line for the Derby. In fact Rebel Raider was beaten over 3 lengths at Geelong, and was correctly sent out at 100/1 in the Derby. Viewed had had 4 runs back following his Brisbane Cup win on a bog track back in June, beaten soundly at every one of those runs this spring. Certainly, Viewed, Rebel Raider & Maldivian all put in form reversals that fooled most punters on the day. So, punters rightly or as it turned out wrongly, ignored all four of these Group 1 winners. If we go back to the time honoured Turnbull Stakes a month ago, where Weekend Hussler was sent out a long odds on favourite, he duely missed a place, the rot for punters starting way back in early October.

The Caulfield Guineas has turned out to be one of the only major races where form lines stood up and punters got it right, when the Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou was victorious at $1.60, not the most succulent of odds for which punters search. Nevertheless, a winner is a winner this spring and Whobegotyou is almost the only horse to put some money back into punters pockets. Northern Meteor, admittedly started very short priced favourite in the Group 1 Coolmore on Saturday, however it must be said this is not one of the big 6 or 7 races of the spring.

So, why have the majority of the favourites been failing? Why are these long priced horses consistently winning throughout the spring of 2008?

There are several reasons for this. Firstly, most of these beaten favourites have been well under the odds, and most have actually been false favourites. The strength & depth of Australian horses, especially at the top level has evened out so much over the past few years, it doesn't take much to go wrong for the favourite's chances to go awry in a race. Favourites require everything to go their way, as do every other horse in the race for that matter to win the race. Being used up early, sitting a little wide  without any cover, taking off too early, horses placed in unsuitable races over unsuitable distances all of these issues will accumulate to get a favourite or any other horse beaten. Horses who win these top class races, generally have everything go their way, receiving a nice easy run with cover, getting clear at the right time, not being used up early, and of course being placed by the trainer in the right race over the right distance. Media hype plays a massive part in making horses false favourites, as we saw with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou. Weekend Hussler was a sprinter miler attempting to win staying races in a year that most thought the WFA ranks were down in class. He simply didn't stay. Whobegotyou was jumping 500m in distance in attempting to win the Derby, a fact clearly forgotten by punters carried away with the media hype surrounding the horses chances. At least the winner Rebel Raider only jumped 300m from the Geelong run to the Derby. As for the Melbourne Cup, I don't know how many times I watched a replay of Septimus winning in Ireland at his most recent start before the Cup, winning by a massive 13 lengths. Alas, what every pundit forgot to mention to punters was this victory was on a bog track, and Septimus would be racing on a hard surface come Cup day. And how many times did we see a replay of Mad Rush's excellent 4th in the Caulfield Cup, pundits drooling over it as a great guide to his chances in the Melbourne Cup. What pundits did not tell punters, was that Mad Rush had never won a race beyond 2400m, his best distance, the distance of the Caulfield Cup not the Melbourne Cup, and was a massive query over the 3200m yesterday. The media has plenty to answer for in assisting to make these horses short priced false favourites. If the media is going to push horses, then they should give out all the facts, not just the one's that suit them to make a story.

The other major issue is track bias, which is an alley that Racing Victoria forbid most journalists covering the carnival to walk down. Caulfield over its 3 day carnival in October was a disgrace, with few or no horses making up ground in any race. The committee moved the rain around on all 3 days in an attempt to lure punters into the  belief the track was playing fairly, and with the assistance of the media, most punters were duped. Fact is, other than a handful of events, front runners on the fence were advantaged, alas, nothing changed when we arrived at Flemington last Saturday. The only races where horses seem to be able to make ground at Flemington this year is in long distance races. The 1400m & 1600m races around the circuit, horses simply have to be in the first 2 or 3 to have any winning hope, and the straight races are the same.

Another issue is that punters are all becoming sheep. They follow media hype, they look for the obvious form lines because they are what most of the racing media tend to focus on. In yesterday's Melbourne up for example, plenty of media wanted to spruik Bart Cummings chances of winning a 12th Cup. However they focussed on Saturday's Saab winner Moatize, not the Brisbane Cup winner Viewed. Thus, Viewed went out at $41 (gross overs), Moatize $12 (gross unders), and we all know the result. Punters listen to the radio, to the racing stations on television, and follow what is fed to them. They look at form guides in the same way every time they pick one up, not just one punter, but the majority of punters. Therefore, some horses who should be $2.50 in the market come up as $1.50 chances, way under the odds. There was a glaring example of this in the last at Flemington yesterday with favourite Daintree Duke. His true price was around the $2.75 mark, however he had been odds on with bookmakers since acceptances came out on Saturday evening. Why? Because of the massive media hype surrounding him. In the end, he was beaten, albeit unluckily, by Danzylum who sat close to the pace all the way and held on strongly to the finish.

So what will happen in the Oaks tomorrow? How many punters will keenly jump on odds on favourite Samantha Miss after her great 3rd in the W S Cox Plate for tomorrow 3yo fillies classic? Going by what has transpired thus far this spring, plenty will, and once again they will get burnt. Samantha Miss is the class horse of the race, however, like Whobegotyou on Saturday, is jumping 500m from the Plate to the Oaks, and we know what happened to Whobegotyou at his short quote. She is long odds on, and terrible value for any punter to consider backing. Punters have to get smarter, either look for value, or simply don't have a bet. What, I hear you cry! Don't have a bet! Yes, show some discipline, either look for one over the odds, or wait for another race. Don't listen to media hype, especially when 3 or 4 different outlets spruik the same horse, it will be under the odds. Leave it alone, wait for it to fail under the pressure of such support, then jump on at subsequent starts when the odds are right.

The final group 1 of the carnival is run on Saturday over the 1600m at Flemington, however we won't see an odds on pop in that race. So punters should get good value for their money in the race. Nevertheless, the media will hype up one or two who are sure to be well in the market come jump time, as well as being way under their true odds. So punters beware.

The media is a most important factor in the racing industry. It simply would not survive the way it is without the media. However, all facets of the media must take their jobs far more seriously than they do now. All they look for is a story, and when several all jump on the one horse it comes up way under the odds, and generally gets beaten. The media always try to make a hero, a so called champion. Unfortunately they did this with Weekend Hussler & Whobegotyou, as there were no other horses consistently winning this spring. We should all allow the horses to make their own stories, allow the horses on track performances to influence our judgement, maybe then, punters will get back on the right track.

Good luck and profitable punting to all.

 

 

Friday 24 October 2008

W S Cox Plate 2008

The time honoured W S Cox Plate is always remembered in Australian racing annuls as the race the best horse in the country wins. Any thoroughbred with ambitions of claiming the number 1 title simply has to have a Cox Plate victory in his resume or serious doubts are caste upon a legitimate claim to fame. All the greats have won the race, run on a saucer shaped track a short journey north east of the city of Melbourne in Victoria. Though the track is less than ideal to give every horse the best winning opportunity, somehow, greatness does ebb to the surface most years for the best horse to prove victorious.

In years gone by there have also been some outstanding clashes between similarly great race horses. These head to head clashes have been immortalised adding to the excitement of the race. Nevertheless, harsh reality has struck us all between the eyes for the 2008 version of the champion's race, with what has to be said a less than quality field lining up tomorrow afternoon. Honestly, if you had read all the names of the starters out a month ago, hailing each one a winner of the Cox Plate, how many would you have thought had the ability to be there on race day, let alone win the great race? As little as a month ago, only two entrants were even thought of as being aimed at the race, and they are the Kiwi mare Princess Coup along with the best 3yo filly in NSW Samantha Miss. Add the Lloyd Williams trained Zipping, and possibly the completely out of form Maldivian I doubt any of the others were remote outsiders to make the field. However the lack of depth simply proves the arguement that Australian middle distance & staying stocks are badly depleted in this era and steps need to be taken immediately to rectify the situation. Yes, possibly this is the best field of 12 that could have been assembled, however that does not mean the race meets the reverence and esteem of previous years. In fact, we believe the 2008 version is the weakest, certainly in the modern era, more likely the weakest of all time. A very sad indictment on such a great race.

Nevertheless, one horse will indeed become part of the legendary history of Cox Plate winners tomorrow afternoon, and seriously, not too many of the starters deserve such a high accolade. In fact, in a few years time we will look back and wonder how some of the horses even got into the field. Princess Coup, Samantha Miss both deserve their position and both also deserve to be given a great winning chance. Zipping on his best form would be a worthy Cox Plate placegetter, so striking such a weak lot this year places him in an excellent winning position. Now, unless there is a massive form reversal from one of the other runners, or the former 3 strike extreme bad luck, that is your race. We have followed Master O'Reilly's career from the early days, backing him at almost every one of his starts. He is a great favourite of ours especially after his Caulfield Cup victory last year. However, not even completely biased minds such as ours could ever contemplate the Master being a Cox plate champion, despite the weakness of this years field.

Firstly, we'll discount those who simply cannot win. Raheeb was beaten a minute in the Epsom and should not be in the field, Gallant Tess, a fine mare, however she is simply not up to a Cox Plate. It would take a form reversal of a most extreme course to believe Sirmione could possible figure in the finish. Zarita unfortunately for trainer Pat Hyland in a similar boat. Cest La Guerre struggled to get past Duoro Valley in the Caulfield Stakes and he finished distanced last week in the Caulfield Cup, impossible to consider Cest La Guerre as a winning hope. It hurts to say it, however Master O'Reilly is out of his depth in a true Cox Plate, this year may be different, however it is difficult to see him figuring in the finish. His aim for 2008 has always been the Melbourne Cup, and that is where his future lies.

Now, let's look at how the race will be run. Big Maldivian has blinkers on for the first time tomorrow in an attempt to sharpen him up. And that the blinkers will most definitely do, and if he manoeuvres himself with the aplomb to get out of the barriers unscathed and on equal terms, then he will shoot straight to the front and lead easily. Regrettably for likable trainer Mark Kavanagh, big Mal will be gone at the school near the 800m mark and will be a sitting shot for the run on horses. The Gai Waterhouse trained Epsom Handicap victor Thesio will also begin well from the outside barrier and will come across the face of the field to sit second, either outside Maldivian or in behind him depending on how quick the blinkers make Mal go. It is impossible to imagine Thesio being in the finish of a Cox Plate, however, he does have a rank outside place hope this year, as he will be on top of the speed and will fight on in the straight. The key to the race is where the main hopes position up in the run. From barrier 2 Samantha Miss has to race closer than she has in her Sydney victories, possibly 3rd or 4th on the fence with such a fast pace. Princess Coup & Zipping always get a long way back, and considering the fast pace, then that should be the case again tomorrow. They will get the opportunity to run on however as they have the ability and more quality than their opponents in the race. So long as they are not more than 6-8 lengths from the leaders coming to the 800m, then they should be able to get home over the top of most of them.

So, we've discounted the majority of the field as winning hopes, we are now left with Samantha Miss, Princess Coup, Zipping and the Mick Price trained Alimosa. Three of these are of the fairer sex, and mares don't win Cox Plates unless they are outstanding, whilst only one 3yo filly has ever won the race. So what does this mean, Zipping is a certainty? Well, if the real Zipping fronts up at Moonee Valley tomorrow, that may well be the case, however there a couple of him, and he will need to be right on his metal to salute. Everything will have to go his way, he will have to have a cosy run, with cover, get clear by the school in plenty of time to wind up, then have an unchequered passage over the final 600m to figure in the finish. Hate to say it, but it certainly looks  like a females race in 2008. It is doubtful Alimosa has the class to win, despite an emphatic victory in the Toorak handicap. That form rarely stands up in a  Cox Plate, although this is an unusual year.

Down to the nitty gritty. Princess Coup has taken all before her in New Zealand this year. She has beaten the best, and her form in Australia this time last year was also outstanding and right up with the best we could put together. She has the class to win, the only minor concern is how far back she will get, and whether she too can secure a clear run from the 800m. If all goes well, she will run either first or second. Her travel arrangements have been less than ideal for such a big race, and she only arrived in Australia yesterday, so that in itself has to be a query, however she has travelled here before, hopefully nothing has gone awry. Samantha Miss as stated should race closer to the pace tomorrow, she has the services of leading Group 1 jockey Glen Boss, has no weight and is definitely the horse with the most potential in the race. This time next year, we may well be saying she is the best horse in the country, however, we don't have a crystal ball to see if that will be the case.

When the business end of the race starts at the school, Maldivian will tire, giving Thesio the unenviable task of taking the lead and being left a sitting shot. As Maldivian tires out of the race Samantha Miss will ease into the race nicely with a trail behind Thesio, then Boss will shoot her to the front as the field wheels into the short straight. Princess Coup, Alimosa & Zipping will all have taken off out wide at the 800m and will have to be within 2 lengths of the filly on the turn to beat her with her light weight. They will try valiantly, but in vain. Samantha Miss will become only the second filly in history to win a Cox Plate. Why? Because she is the best horse in the field, she will get the best run from a good barrier, has the feather weight to carry and as intimated earlier, hindsight being the wonderful thing that it is, in 12 months time she will be hailed as the best horse in Australia. In any normal Cox Plate year, a 3yo filly would have no winning hope, this year she does and will.

Our selections:-

1 Samanatha Miss

2 Princess Coup

3 Zipping

4 Thesio

 

Best of luck to everyone having a punt on the race. Hopefully it will be a clean affair with every horse obtaining every opportunity to win.

 

 

 

 

Thursday 23rd October 2008

 

Dominence Of Overseas Horses in the Spring of 2008

Following the victories of the Goldolphin All The Good in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday plus the Luka Cumani trained Bauer in the Geelong Cup yesterday, questions must be asked about the quality of middle distance horses being produced in Australia. However the issue probably goes even deeper than this when we look at the field for Australia's number WFA event, the Cox Plate being run this Saturday at Moonee Valley, where it must be said the field looks to be the weakest in many, many years.

Let's firstly go back 12 months to the Spring of 2007 which was held in the midst of the EI crisis, and look at who won the major races. Caulfield Cup was taken out by Master O'Reilly, who had legitimately come through his grades in Victoria and proved a superior stayer on the day. The ease of his victory, 2.3 lengths, however levelled certain questions at the strength of the field considering a month previous Master O'Reilly was running at provincial tracks in Victoria. His rank failure in his next appearance in the Melbourne Cup also cast considerable doubt about the form of the Caulfield event. The Cox Plate was taken out by the Colin Little trained El Segundo who certainly deserved the accolade of being a Cox plate champion after winning several Group 1 races throughout the 2006/07 season, and being runner up in the Plate the year before. The big one on the first Tuesday in November 2007, went to the Lloyd Williams owned Efficient, who had not won a race since the VRC Derby of 2006, outsiders filling all placings. So as far back as the spring of 2007, there were most definitely question marks over the form of the major races. Even if we go back another year or two, where we saw the great old stager Fields of Omagh win two Cox Plates, with all due respect to him, the writing was on the wall some time ago. The fact is since the halcyon days of the late 90s early 2000s, where we saw the likes of Northerly, Sunline, Elvestrom, Lonhro dominating the great races around the country, Australian horses have since been left behind by overseas invaders. This includes those from the land of the long white cloud, and the situation has really been brought to fruition during the Spring of 2008. It has now become a crisis that cannot be ignored by administrators any longer.

If we look closely at the result of the 2008 Caulfield Cup, the best runs in the race came from the winner, All The Good, runner up Nom De Jur and 4th placegetter Mad Rush, all bred and trained outside of Australia. The 3rd placegetter, Danny O'Brien trained Barbaricus, was lucky to even obtain a start in the race being first emergency and even the best optimism of O'Brien would have given his other two runners in   the race Douro valley & Master O'Reilly much more chance than the 150/1 shot Barbaricus. The favourites were not cited. Weekend Hussler who is allegedly the best horse in Australia has not won beyond 1800m, and after his effort at Caulfield, must now be left to run in race up to 1600m only. Douro Valley who was runner up in the Caulfield Cup in 2007, went on to win the major lead up to both Caulfield Cup & Cox Plate in 2008 the Caulfield Stakes, was beaten further than you or I could throw a cricket ball. Master O'Reilly finished 7th last Saturday after winning the event in 2007, however he didn't even get warm in 2008.

So where will the winner of the 2008 Melbourne Cup appear from? Certainly not from any of the Australian stayers. There must be extreme doubt cast over the form of 2007 Cup winner Efficient following the failures this spring of any horse who performed well in 2007. This leaves only the overseas horses to stand up. All The Good, Mad Rush, Bauer & Nom De Jur are all in form, fit and ready to tackle the 3200m on Tuesday week. Throw in Coolmore's Septimus and it is very likely Australian horses will not a fill a placing in the first 5 of this years great race. What a tragic indictment for the Australian racing & breeding industry if this was to occur, and it most likely will.

So why has this happened, what does it mean, and where are we heading? Firstly, this has obviously occurred because Australian breeders are only interested in breeding speedy 2yo squibs to race for the extremely over funded 2yo races like the Magic Millions & Golden Slipper. You cannot blame owners, breeders & trainers for attacking the big prize money, they would be crazy not to. Race schedulers around the country are the one's to blame as rarely do we see more than one race further than 1600m on any race meeting's program. This includes provincial & country racing, in fact most country meetings don't ever see a race of a distance further than 1600m. So why should breeders breed stayers, why should owners buy them, why should trainers even bother to train them in some parts of the country. We cannot answer that question. An even sadder truth is the horses bred for speed to race early, either lose form or break down and rarely race on past their 3yo season.

The ramifications for the industry are far reaching. More horses are being bred, creating a far more even spread ability wise of thoroughbreds racing in the country. There are far too many stallions and non commercial broodmares creating a severe lack of quality throughout the breed in recent years. Where are the champions of the turf in 2008? Don't tell me Weekend Hussler who can't race well beyond a mile is a champion. We haven't seen an outstanding race horse in this country since Lonhro, Sunline or Northerly, and they were at their peaks some 6-7 years ago. And there certainly are not any Might & Powers nor has there been since his reign back in the late 90s. Where are the outstanding WFA horses, even stepping back a notch to the likes of  a Filante or a Juggler or an Octagonal who were always competitive in Cox Plates. The quality is not getting any better and the racing industry as a whole needs to look very closely at this and rectify the situation because if they don't, in 10 years time Australia won't even have a runner in the Melbourne Cup. Even the great Makybe Diva was able to win a race like the Cox Plate, a race she certainly would not have won had the field been of previous years quality. She was a great horse, a great stayer, one of which it is unlikely we will ever see again.

Look at the 2008 Cox Plate field. Now, think back about a month to mid September, and say out loud how many of the starters in the race at Moonee Valley on Saturday you honestly thought would be there on the day. That is not even to say how many you thought may have been winning chances a month ago, but  how many actually achieved a start. Seriously, there are only two horses in Saturday's race that we thought one month ago may have been there, Princess Coup & Samantha Miss. There are 4 or 5 who would have never made the field, never even have gone close to making the field in some years like 1996, 1997, or 2001. The 2008 version of Australia's number 1 WFA event, is the weakest we have seen in over 45 years of following horse racing. In fact, we would have to say the quality of the field this year brings the name W S Cox Plate into disrepute.

Another impact the lack of quality horses is having is on the punter. The punter is in our opinion the backbone of the racing industry in Australia, without it is doubtful whether the industry would exist at all. He is the one who fronts up day after day, week after week outlaying his hard earned in the ultimate endeavour to find that elusive winner. The task set for punters is now enormous with all these overseas horses it is becoming increasingly difficult for him to piece together form lines. Not to mention whether the overseas horse has travelled well, settled in, acclimatised, eaten well. He has no idea, after so many dismal failures over the years by the likes of Oscar Schindler & Maamool, we then see All The Good & Taufan's Melody win Caulfield Cups completely friendless in the betting markets. And who can blame the punter for shying away from them after previously bad experiences. The other impact on the punter is with the poorer quality Australian stayers lining up in the big Group1 races, this leaves another void in the lesser events over the carnival, the Group 2 middle distance race, and the time honoured Country Cups that are held at this time of the year. Seymour, Benalla, Cranbourne & Moe have all held their version already this year, along with Geelong yesterday, and it must be said their Cup fields have been of lesser quality than what punters would normally become enthused about. Cranbourne in particular generally throws up a couple of Caulfield Cup runners, not this year. And again, as we spiral down through the grades, the dearth of quality horse flesh in these lesser races then impacts on the non Group city races, as well as Class racing around the provincial and country areas. Horses are now racing well out of their grade, it is becoming increasingly difficult for horses to string together several victories, and form lines are certainly not holding up as the used to. The punters conundrum is becoming greater by the day.

So the impact of the breeding industry, along with race scheduling is certainly far reaching. What will Racing Victoria & the VRC say publicly when no Australian horses finish in the first 5 or 6 in the Melbourne Cup? They will spruik how truly an International race that we now have and we should all be very proud to be Australian and be a part of it. And we should all be very proud to be Australian, indeed, however you may leave us out of supporting the giving of our major trophy and prize money to the hit and run visitors who put little else back in to Australian racing other than for one or two days of the year. That prize money in itself, if spread throughout the industry would do far more good than thrown at those who don't need it, those only wishing to prance around in the limelight for a day or two then disappear for another 12 months all at our expense. And all in the name of being a truly international event.

Bring back the days of Might & Power leading all the way, bring back the days of Sunline demoralising a top class field, bring back the days of the fighting tiger Northerly staving off all challengers. Please bring us some stayers who are able to compete at the highest level again.

 

 

 

The Caulfield Cup

 
If the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation, then the Caulfield Cup is the race that stops 90% of the nation 17 days earlier. Always remembered for being the best horses race, the Caulfield Cup is as meaningful to rank & file punters as is the Melbourne Cup is to the once a year punter. The 2008 version as always brings together the best horses in Australia, coupled with the best from New Zealand, with a few European adventurers for good measure. It looks a great race on paper, barrier draws appeared to have really evened out the main winning chances, as we have become accustomed to, luck in running will play the most vital role.
 
The weather in Melbourne will be fine, the track will be dead, unfortunately irrigation has been again been used to "affect" the track. Hopefully by the first race  this will not have any affect or bias on the results of any of the ten races at Caulfield, in particular the Cup.
 
There are more horses in race that cannot win, than have serious winning chances. This happens every year, the MRC want a capacity field, owners & trainers want their horse to run and who can blame them, the thrill of having a runner in the Caulfield Cup would fulfill most owners ultimate racing dream. Regrettably what this means, is that some serious winning hopefuls will not obtain the necessary luck to be able to win this prestigious event, with some horses with little or no winning hope, will simply get in the way of the good horses. And this is why the horse who obtains the best run, without interference, will win the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
 
Firstly let's attack who cannot win. Top weight Weekend Hussler has drawn extremely awkwardly in barrier 11, this is his first attempt at 2400m, he hasn't won beyond 1800m, so he will require every tiny little thing to go his way for him to win. From the barrier, he has to go forward, having never raced over the distance, he will be expecting a faster speed, and with no other known leader in the race, he may well even be forced to take up the running himself. Either way, he will use up plenty of petrol in the early stages, and will be a spent force when the others get serious at the 600m mark. No Weekend Hussler in the 2008 Caulfield Cup.
 
Prepost 2007 favourite Maldivian, who was scratched at the barrier, fronts up again in 2008, however his form this time around has not given supporters or punters a lot to become enthused about. In fact, his recent efforts have been very weak. From barrier 18, he will have to come across the field to get to the fence and lead early, he will pull fiercely and will use up all his energy in the initial 600m of the race. No Big Mal in 2008.
 
We then have to ask how & why a few others actually got into the race. Ice Chariot, Viewed, Fiumicino, Dolphin Jo, Riva San, Zagreb, Barbaricus, not to mention the emergencies, honestly have no wining chance, all they will do is get in the road of the cream. Yes, they qualified to gain a start under the rules, so they do deserve their moment of glory, let's hope they don't ruin the chances of another.
 
There are two European horses who have attained a start, neither of whom we can line up properly against the better Autralian & New Zealand horses. Mad Rush and All The Good will both require plenty of speed on, and they should get it, as there is always plenty of pace in a  Caulfield Cup, 2008 will be no different. The big if is, have they settled in & acclimatised so they can perform at their peak? From experience, rarely do the European or Japanese perform unless they have had one feeler run before they peak. Both will run good races, doubt either can win first up in Australia.
 
New Zealand give us three realistic chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, or do they? Nom De Jue & Red Ruler quinellad the AJC Derby over 2400m in April, assuring both of a walk up start in the Caulfield Cup. How strong was that form? Considering the  EI situation in Australia late 2007 early 2008, many horses simply were not at their peak for the autumn carnival placing grave doubt on the form coming from it. Look at the Group 1 winners from the autumn (Triple Honour for one), and only those who were EI free have gone on from there, most others have showed the form simply does not stand up. Both Nom De Jue & Red Ruler have failed to impress since the autumn, failing to win the major Group 1s in NZ. In saying that, both have undeniable chances in the 2008 Caulfield Cup, as the race is not strong, with Red Ruler from the inside obtaining a perfect run in transit. Unfortunately Nom De Jue has drawn 20, he will need everything to go his way to win. The third of the NZ contingent is the Steven McKee trained mare Boundless, doubtful she can beat Red Ruler, so happy to risk her.
 
Well, that doesn't leave us with too many realistic chances, does it? 2007 winner Master O'Reilly, Turnbull Stakes victor Lottorio, 2007 runner up Douro Valley & the David Hayes trained master of the form reversal Guillotine. If someone had have told me 12 months ago Guillotine was a Caulfield Cup winner, I would have immediately signed them into the One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest asylum. Would you have believed it? No, so let's leave him out as well.
 
The best guide to the Caulfield Cup has always been the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington a fortnight before. Lottorio won well that day, sitting off the pace, then producing an exciting finishing burst that had Group 1 written all over it. He has an undeniable winning chance. However, he rises 1kg on that victory, plus the increase of 400m in distance, so there is a slight query there. He has drawn barrier 10, so will need luck to get across to get a cosy run, a run that will be required to win a Caulfield Cup. Steven King is the man for that job, most experienced, happy to have him on anything I back at any time of the year, especially Cup time. Lottorio is in the race right up to his ears.
 
2007 runner up Douro Valley showed last week at Caulfield he is now fit and ready to show his best in the 2008 version by winning the WFA Caulfield Stakes. Ridden like the good thing he was, James Winks took the gelding straight to the front, to lead all the way over 200m. From barrier 2 tomorrow, Winks & Douro Valley will get the run of the race, and like last year, he will look the winner at the top of the straight and will run the 2400m right out. Douro Valley a real hope of going one better in 2008.
 
2008 victor Master O'Reilly has only had two runs back from a spell to fit him for the 2008 assignment. However, he did have a mid year preparation, so only had a couple of weeks in the paddock and has been in work for as long as most of the others. His run behind Lottorio in the Turnbull was outstanding, meets him 1.5kg better and will strip much fitter for the outing. He has had two starts at Caulfield over 2400m, both have resulted in wins. The only issues with him, is barrier 13 (he came from 6 last year to win after a cosy run and a great ride), and whether he is fit enough. His obvious target this year is the first Tuesday in November, however after his Turnbull effort, one simply cannot sell him short for 2008 Caulfield Cup, If Vlad Duric can get him across from the barrier one off the fence, then bring him into the race at the 800m, he is a serious winning chance.
 
Should be a terrific race, looking forward to it immensely, let's hope we don't have the drama we endured in 2007 in the lead up when Maldivian & Eskimo Queen were a late scratchings at the barrier. Everyone has a tip, our selections are:-
 
1 Master O'Reilly
2 Douro Valley
3 Lottorio
4 Red Ruler
 
Best of luck to all those having a punt in the Caulfield Cup.

 

 

Friday 8 August 2008

The Era Of The Synthetic Track Has Arrived

A quick glance at the venues of today's gallop meetings would not generally raise an eyebrow. Gunnedah & Canberra in NSW, Geelong in Victoria & the Sunshine Coast in Queensland are all regular Friday venues on the racing calendar. However, the most interesting feature is that 3 of the 4 venues will today be racing on synthetic surfaces, not grass tracks. These synthetic tracks were set up to take the burden away from grass tracks during the winter, and we now see a predominance of racing on these surfaces, especially during the week. In fact, in recent times, several meetings have been transferred from other venues to the Geelong Thorough Track, plus, meetings scheduled for the grass at Caloundra, have been transferred to their Cushion Track. This is great for racing, as little or no turnover is lost, terrific for the social punter who can still get on, especially on a Friday which the second biggest turnover day of the week.

Nevertheless, these synthetic surfaces throw up a mighty conundrum for the serious & semi serious punters. Most serious punters are aware that some horses will handle different types of surfaces better than other horses. Some horses handle heavy tracks, some don't, other horses excel on dry, hard tracks, others, especially those with niggling knee or feet injuries, will not. Horses, who have not quite made the grade in Sydney or Melbourne, are frequently sent to Darwin or Alice Springs to find easier races, however, some simply don't handle dirt track racing and are huge flops.

So, where are we heading with all of this? Exactly the same thing will occur on synthetic surfaces as they do on heavy tracks, dry, hard tracks, or dirt tracks. Some horses will handle the going, others won't. Some horses simply won't feel comfortable or confident when running full pace on a synthetic surface, therefore will not stretch out to perform at their best. Other horses will resent having sand thrown back into their face, and simply won't try. This has become glaringly obvious this winter, with some massive upset results at both the Cushion Track at Caloundra & the Thorough Track at Geelong.

There are two ways for punters to overcome these issues:-

*     Avoid backing horses who have failed on a synthetic surface in the past. Avoid backing horses who are untried on the synthetic surface.

*     Look for horses who have won on the synthetic surface in the past, or those who have been narrowly beaten but have proven they can handle it. Also look for horses trained at the track, as they have worked on the synthetic in the lead up to the race.

The synthetic surfaces can be compared with a rain affected track, usually between dead & slow. So those horses who don't handle good to fast tracks will generally not be suited on the synthetic surface. The synthetic surfaces are softer, assisting those horses who are touchy on their feet or in their joints.

The other issue which also must be addressed by the serious punter, is how to weigh up form from these synthetic tracks. Avoid backing last start winners on synthetic surfaces, when racing on grass at their next outing, winning margins can be greatly exaggerated. Also you can forgive a horse a bad run on the synthetic, if his previous form was strong on grass tracks.

So in summary, look for the old "horses for courses" when having a bet on Synthetic tracks, especially those who are trained at the track who have had experience on the surface

 

 

 

Monday 12 May 2008

 

Stewards Report - Edenhope 11/5/2008

Most punters read Stewards Reports as an aid to finding a winner, or a way to find an excuse as to why your horse was beaten. Most Stewards Reports are a valuable tool for punters in assessing whether a horse may have been unlucky and whether it should be followed in the future. Please note, the operative word here is MOST.

Yesterday at Edenhope, we were very close to having a bet in the first race, however after much procrastination decided to sit the event out. Nevertheless, watch with extreme interest we did to witness the fortunes of the Darren Magro trained, unusually tagged Redsplit Thumb. He began well enough to be sitting about a length off the leader Tarrington as they approached the 800m of the 1000m affair. However, soon after, Redsplit Thumb copped a nasty check dropping back sharply into the lap of favourite Hullaballoo, both horses losing considerable ground. At the finish, Redsplit Thumb failed narrowly to run down Tarrington, who was declared the winner by a head, Hullaballoo didn't recover from the set back to finish 4th.

Below is a copy of the Stewards Report in the race taken directly off the Racing Victoria web site last evening:-

 

Race 1 – EDENHOPE TRADERS 0 – 72 HANDICAP - 1000 metres:

A protest was lodged by both apprentices Jarrod Fry rider of 4th placed Hullabaloo. Apprentice Fry alleged interference near the 700 metres against 2nd placed Redsplit Thumb (Jason Lyon) and 1st placed Tarrington (Neville Wilson) and by 2nd placed Redsplit Thumb alleging interference near the 700 metres against Tarrington.     Due to the level of inference and margins in both protests 4th Hullabaloo verses 2nd Redsplit Thumb and 4th Hullabaloo verses 1st Tarrington were dismissed.  Further taking into account the interference suffered by Redsplit Thumb, the Stewards upheld the protest and amended the placings as follows: 1st Tarrngton, (Neville Wilson) 2nd Redsplit Thumb (Jason Lyon), 3rd Investments (Kayla Stra) and 4th Hullabaloo (Jarrod Fry).

Shortly after the start Dibbles was crowded for room by Tarrington which shifted in slightly and had to be eased.

Near the 700 metres Redsplit Thumb was tightened having to be steadied inwards to avoid the heels of Tarrington (N. Wilson) which shifted inwards. Hullabaloo which was racing to the inside of Redsplit Thumb was severely tightened for room and had to be checked as a result. Devlin’s Star was also inconvenienced in this incidence.

Jockey N. Wilson pleaded guilty to a charge under AR. 137 (a) in that he allowed his mount to shift inwards passing the 700m resulting in the aforementioned interference. Jockey Wilson had his licence to ride in races suspended for a period of 10 meetings to commence at midnight the 12th May 2008 and to expire at midnight 22nd May 2008 (3 Metropolitan, 7 Provincial). In assessing penalty Stewards took into account Jockey Wilson’s good record.

A post Race veterinary examination of Redsplit Thumb revealed it to have a minor abrasion to the off-fore leg and off hind leg. 

Devlin’s Star also underwent a veterinary examination which revealed a laceration to he near hind leg.

Investments was inclined to lay inwardly under pressure in the straight.

 

Below is the result, taken again directly from the RVL web site:-

Race 1.     1000M    Edenhope Traders 0 - 72 Handicap  
HORSE Rider Fin SP
 
 REDSPLIT THUMB  JASON LYON  1st  $3
 TARRINGTON  NEVILLE WILSON  2nd  $3.40
 INVESTMENTS  KAYLA STRA  3rd  $15
 HULLABALOO  JARROD FRY  4th  $2.50F
 DEVLIN'S STAR  PAUL MARKS  5th  $7
 DIBBLES  JOHN DERTILIS  6th  $17

 

Now come on gentlemen, a Stewards Report needs to be succinct, coherent and understandable to all those who read them. Who actually won the race? Who were the protagonists in the protests?

 

This morning RVL, to their credit, have since altered the Report to appear like this:-

 

Race 1 – EDENHOPE TRADERS 0 – 72 HANDICAP - 1000 metres: A protest lodged by apprentice J Fry rider of 4th placed Hullabaloo alleging interference near the 700 metres against the 2nd placed Redsplit Thumb (Jason Lyon) and the 1st placed Tarrington (Neville Wilson) were both dismissed. 

 

A protest lodged by Jockey J. Lyon rider of the 2nd placed Redsplit Thumb alleging interference near the 700 metres against the 1st placed Tarrington was upheld. In reaching their decision stewards took into account Redsplit Thumb being tightened and having to ease at that stages and the minor margin at the finish. Stewards amended the placings as follows: 1st Redsplit Thumb (Jason Lyon), 2nd Tarrington (N Wilson), 3rd Investments (Kayla Stra) and 4th Hullabaloo (Jarrod Fry).

 

Now that all makes far more sense than the Dribbles posted on to the web site yesterday afternoon. It is difficult enough to find a winner on any given day, let alone attempt to derive some benefit or sense from illiterate ramblings such as the original Report. After reading said Report, one may think it was written from the bar at Edenhope, not from the Stewards Room.

 

 

Apache Cat, Greg's Pleasant Problem

Cranbourne trainer Greg Eurell knew from an early age Apache Cat was going to make the grade. However from the first time he gave the gelding a serious gallop, he knew he had a serious problem.

On Saturday, Apache Cat narrowly won the Group 1 BTC Cup at Doomben in Queensland, achieving a feat very few equine thoroughbreds are able to achieve. This victory was his 4th successive Group 1 win this year, a performance normally set aside for champions of the turf. At his previous start, he had won the Group 1 T J Smith Stakes at Royal Randwick whilst before that was successful at Moonee Valley in the Australia Stakes as well as at Flemington, home of the Melbourne Cup, in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes. Only Weekend Hustler, who has won 6 successive Group 1's this season, can boast a better record of horses currently still racing in Australia. This places Apache Cat in a category far above most thoroughbred race horses.

Apache Cat is adored by the Australian racing public. He has a huge white patch on his forehead, along a long white sock on each of his four legs which not only brings immediate attention to him, but stamps him apart from most other thoroughbreds. Because of his looks, as well as his most consistent performances on the track, he is idolised by racing fans across the country.

And to think, at one stage this most revered of gallopers may well have been lost to the country of his birth. By little known USA stallion Lion Cavern out of a Whiskey Road mare, Apache Cat has risen from relative obscurity to now become a national icon. However after only 3 race starts, a large offer was made by interested parties in Hong Kong to purchase the gelding to race in SE Asia. The offer was too good to refuse, so Apache Cat endured a full veterinary inspection which he of course passed with flying colours. Funds for the purchase were to be transferred the following day, however the new owners wanted to see a video of his recent win in the VRC Gibson Carmichael Stakes prior to proceeding. On witnessing the video, the prospective owners were in shock, immediately reneging on the deal. When asked why, the would be purchaser was heard to say "Too much white, too much white, bad luck, bad luck," so the sale fell through to the good fortune of Australian race goers.

Trainer Greg Eurell has had to overcome one major hurdle with his star galloper. Right from the start of his race track career, Eurell has never had one horse that can keep up with Apache Cat on the training track. Now Eurell is no slouch as a trainer, and he throws out plenty of winners from his Cranbourne stable every year, regrettably, none as fast as Apache Cat. One after another, Apache Cat would trounce his stable mates on the track, giving Eurell a massive problem as to how to get his stable star fit for his major events, albeit a problem that most trainers would love to have. Nevertheless, fit him Eurell has, proving he is a great mentor given the right cattle to race with.

Apache Cat's next mission is the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 in a fortnights time. A victory here would annex his 5th consecutive Group 1 race, an achievement rarely bettered on Australian race tracks. It is a credit to the quality of the horse and the perfect placement by a great trainer that will now give Australian race fans the opportunity to witness such a magnificent feat.

Go The Cat !!