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Saturday  10 March 2018

Weather:Fine Track:Good(4) Rail:4m

General Comment
Flemington appeared to play pretty fairly last Saturday, the rail moves out 4 metres so that should not affect any horses chances. Watch the straight races, the middle or even closer to the outside appear to be the better going.

Race 6 Newmartket Hcp  G1 1200m
This might be a trap race with the two favourites to carry big weights with a large gap to the lighter weighted horses. Brave Smash is the obvious one, he looks the winner however has drawn close to the inside which may be a disadvantage. With Williams aboard, a huge winning chance nonetheless. Redkirk Warrior won brilliantly down the straight first up and has barrier 15 which may be an asset on race day. The weight over the final 100m is the worry. Going for an outsider in Merchant Navy. He is a Group 1 winner over this course and distance in the Spring, ran a bottler first up and should be primed for a supreme effort in this race with the feather weight. Alwasy thought Supido had a Group 1 win in him, he gets in well at the weights and can win from the outside gate. Kens Dream is also one who is up to this grade and has a good middle draw to assist for Yendall. Catchy down the bottom could blow them away with no weight if she is right, and she had little luck first up at Caulfield. The winner should come from those.

1 #11 Merchant Navy
2 #2 Brave Smash
3 #1 Redkirk Warrior
4 #6 Supido

Race 8 Australian Cup G1 2000m
Horrible start for those drawn wide so barriers might play an important role here. Gailo Chop is the obvious one in great form since resuming and looks the one to beat. However he has drawn wide and will have to work around the turns to get in which may be to his detriment. He was also severely advantaged on the biased Caulfield track last start and the win may be exaggerated. Hartnell has a chance, however its difficult to imagine him turning the tables on Gailo Chop. albeit their Caulfield clash clearly favoured on pacers. Almandin put up a terrific effort first up and can only be improved and has an excellent second up record, the barrier his concern. Single Gaze has chased hard at both runs this time in and has claims to turn the scales against Gailo Chop, ignore the mare at your own peril. Homesman was outstanding at his first run in Australia and with natural improvement can definitely figure in the finish here. We'll risk the favourite.

1 #1 Hartnell
2 #2 Almandin
3 #11 Single Gaze
4 #4 Gailo Chop

Royal Randwick
Weather:Fine Track:Soft(5) Rail:6m

General Comment
The rail goes out to 6 metres today which should not affect any horses winning chances. Watch the wide barriers from the 1400m start, they should be avoided.

Race 6 Canterbury Stakes G1 1300m
The only  Group 1 event run over 1300m in Australia. A small field, a case could be made for almost every runner. Happy Clapper will probably need the run while Clearly Innocent appears a light of younger days. Bowman does jump on the latter so from the good barrier that may be a good lead for punters.  Endless Drama won well last start and should be included.  Derryn should have been gelded, he mixes his form too much for us to become enthused in his chances however a win would not surprise. Foxplay loomed up to win first up, she was a run short, Bowman jumping off her is a concern. Invincible Gem is outstanding first up, and she has strong form around some very good horses, this looks an ideal race for her. Global Gmamour and Showtime will both go forward and may cut at each other, both have hopes with a reasonable run in transit. Showtime's first up effort was very good.  Tulip looks to be just short of thsi class, although this is not the strongest Group 1 in history.

1 #6 Invincible Gem
2 #3 Endless Drama
3 #8 Showtime
4 #2 Clearly Innocent

Race 7 Randwick Guineas G1 1600m
Tough race. Favour Kementari slightly from the good draw. His two wins this time in have been very good and he can do no more than win. He seems to have reached his peak this prep. Trapeze Artist on his day could blow this field away, he is a tad inconsistent, so punters will need to take him on trust. The distance also a concern with him. Ace High will be improved by his two runs this time n and if he goes forward here he will be very difficult to run down. Pieratta was very good behind Kementari in the Hobartville and from the rails draw he can figure in the finish. Sully needs more ground and did find Ace High a little better through the Spring. D'argento is looking for the mile, however  from the barrier, he'll go back and be ridden for luck.  Fur months ago we would have declared Kaonic in a race like this, however he seems to be struggling to find his Spring form/ If he does, he is good enough to win this race. Don't know enough about Age of Fire to put him in.

1 #1 Ace Highs
2 #3 Kementari
3 #10 D'Argento
4 #5 Pieratta

Weather:Fine Track:Good(4) Rail:7m

General Comment
With the rail out 7m on pace runners may be advantaged. Short straight makes it difficult for back markers, however the pace is generally on in most races so that gives them some chance.

Race 4 Flower Stakes 1200m

Battle Hero is in great form this preparation with two wins and a second from three attempts. He goes forward, stays out of trouble, the 60kg is his big concern. Rebel King beat Battle Hero two runs back, meets him 2kg better off their last start clash and he can turn the tables here. Royal Missle looks the one, unbeaten this preparation in three runs and he beat a subsequent Ascot winner last start. If Pike can settle her handily as he did at Pinjarra, then she can finish over the top of them. Dream Lifter and Lenience are trifecta hopes.

1 #7 Royal Missile
2 #2 Rebel King
3 #1 Battle Hero
4 #5 Lenience

Race 6 Lex Piper Stakes 1600m
Money Maher has a good race in him however the barrier from this start point is a serious concern. Action should have won easily last start, if Pike can get him closer in the run he looks hard to beat.. Arctic Stream looks to have potential and he can figure here with the extra fitness and up in distance. He's A Parker and Sentimental Friend may need further however watch for them finding the line late. Miracle Man is looking for the 1600m now and he can certainly improve.

1 #2 Action
2 #1 Money Maher
3 #5 Arctic Stream
4 #3 Miracle Man

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