Handicapper Ratings A Winner On Cox Plate Day

W S Cox Plate Day 2011 highlighted a most important fact for the serious punter. It is a fact Gallopers has been pointing out to punters for some time now in regards to set weights races, whether they be at Weight For Age or set weights with penalties.  Even Class Plate races run for 2 & 3yos in NSW & Class Plate races run in Queensland qualify in this discussion.

Leaving out the 2yo race at Moonee Valley today where we saw all horses were first starters, there were 5 other races on the program that were not handicap events, they were either run at WFA or at set weights & penalties.

The first of these was the 3yo event over 1200m run at set weights plus penalties. The highest rating horse according to the handicapper was the filly Karuta Queen who had a rating of 98, some 12 ratings points higher than her nearest rival Miss Stellabelle who had a rating of only 86.  Yet Karuta Queen carried 1kg less weight than Miss Stellabelle. In fact, Karuta Queen carried less weight than all her rivals with the exception of Glissade & she had a rating of 76, some 22 ratings points below Karuta Queen. Karuta Queen had to win this race according to the handicappers ratings, & she did so by over 3 lengths.

The second & third occurrences we will not dwell on too much as both horses started long odds on. Black Caviar carried less weight than her rivals despite having a minimum of a 16 ratings point advantage over them. And Manawanui carried level weights with his rivals despite having a 28-60 ratings points advantage over them. Both won convincingly albeit at prohibitive odds.

The Forth example came up in the race formerly known as the Moonee Valley Cup. 2010 Melbourne Cup winner Americain carried only 58kg in this race with a handicapper rating of 117. His nearest rival had a rating of 108 yet carried 56kg when there should have been 4.5kg between them. Some horses received only 1kg from Americain when they should have been receiving up to 8kg. Americain duly bolted in.

There is one final example & that appeared in the Cox Plate, the ultimate WFA test. Jimmy Chioux was the highest rating horse at 117, well clear of his nearest rival, alas, he finished a gallant second to Pinker Pinker who got plenty of favours from a magnificent Craig Williams ride.

The point to all of this is quite simple. The handicappers rarely get it wrong. In the time since the ratings based handicaps were introduced the Australian handicappers have nailed every horse to almost exactly what their true rating should be. This is one advantage the punter now has. The punter can use these handicap ratings to measure who is the best horse in every race & which is the best weighted horse.

This method will not work in handicaps. But it will operate well in WFA races, set weights with penalty races & set weight Plate events.

This is a quick an easy way to find, the best horse in those races. Punters should watch these type of races closely throughout the spring carnival, but also all year round.